Pakatan staring at massive loss in next election
By Athi Shankar
GEORGE TOWN: If April's Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election results were to be applied across the Peninsula, Pakatan Rakyat would lose Selangor and Kedah in the 13th general election.
The coalition, however, could retain Penang, albeit with reduced state seats.
At federal level, Barisan Nasional may regain its parliamentary two-thirds majority, which the Umno-controlled coalition lost in the 2008 general election.
In short, a snap national polls now would reduce Pakatan's political strength considerably, mainly due to loss of ethnic Malay and Indian votes.
The staggering electoral projection was Pakatan’s final analysis from its Hulu Selangor by-election post-mortem findings, which was compiled in a report dated May 5.
Compared with DAP, PAS and PKR would suffer more electoral heartbreaks in the next general election if the Hulu Selangor momentum stays through the next general election.
The DAP would be able to retain its political footing due to an overwhelming ethnic Chinese backing for Pakatan.
According to the report -- a copy was made available to FMT by a party source -- Pakatan would only be able to win 18 of 56 state seats in Selangor and meekly surrender the state government to the Barisan Nasional.
DAP is projected to win the same number of 14 state seats as in 2008.
But PKR's state seats would drop from the current 18 to a mere four, while PAS could be wiped out in Selangor, losing all its six state seats.
Bad show in Kedah
The findings projected Pakatan to lose badly in Kedah, winning only four from 36 state seats. It now governs the state with 20 seats.
Contrary to popular belief, the post-Hulu Selangor analysis projected Pakatan to lose in Perak, winning only 21 of the state's 59 assembly seats.
In 2008, Pakatan captured 31 seats.
The only positive aspect of the findings was that the coalition would be able to retain Penang, winning 28 from 40 state seats. Currently, Pakatan has 29 in the island-state.
At parliamentary level, PKR is projected to win between 30 and 33 seats, while DAP may be able to secure 30 to 31 seats.
PAS, on the other hand, could perform badly by winning only 11 seats, 12 less than 2008.
Overall, the Pakatan coalition would only win 70 to 75 federal seats, compared with 80 won in 2008, thus virtually giving BN the two-thirds majority.
The findings also revealed that the (Hulu Selangor) campaign carried out by Pakatan, especially by PKR, was “loose, poorly coordinated, without any theme, except for a smearing campaign and counter-defensive actions, and crippled by a weak machinery”.
In the by-election polls on April 25, BN candidate from MIC P Kamalanathan scored an upset win over PKR supreme council member and former de facto law minister Zaid Ibrahim by a 1,725-vote majority.
Kamalanathan polled 24,997 votes against Zaid’s 23,272 votes. PKR won the seat in the 2008 general election.
Zaid's loss was the second successive by-election defeat suffered by Pakatan following the Bagan Pinang state by-election defeat last October.
In Bagan Pinang, BN’s Mohd Isa Samad triumphed with a landslide 5,435 majority, garnering 8,013 votes against PAS' Negri Sembilan commissioner Zulkefly Mohamad Omar, who polled only 2,578.
Significantly, both the Malay-majority constituencies have decisive numbers of Indian voters.
Equally significant was that Indian votes have shifted by 8% to 10% from Pakatan to BN.
Indian voters comprised 20.7% or 13,664 of Bagan Pinang eligible voters. They formed 19.3% or 12,453 of Hulu Selangor's 64,500 registered voters.
Mid-term review
Both Bagan Pinang and Hulu Selangor are considered to be majority constituencies in the country, in which the Malays form the majority with significant population of Chinese and Indians.
“Pakatan would have suffered severe electoral reverses if the Hulu Selangor by-election was actually a snap general election,” said a Pakatan insider.
The report stated that Pakatan saw Hulu Selangor by-election as a mid-term review on the performance of the PKR-led Selangor government in a “neglected” parliamentary seat.
Much to Pakatan's chagrin, the post-election study disclosed that Khalid Ibrahim's administration “just passed the litmus test without any credits”.
Hulu Selangor also revealed a swing of 8% to 10% among Malays towards BN, while Pakatan has become over-dependent on Chinese votes for its political survival.
Overall, Pakatan secured 36% Malay votes, 41% Indians and 77% Chinese, which was comparatively better than 2004 but marginally poorer than 2008.
Pakatan held out in semi-urban areas despite BN's fierce onslaught, but lost out in rural estates and villages.
According to several Pakatan campaigners, the current nationwide swing of Indian voters towards BN after voting en bloc in 2008 for Pakatan was triggered by the ruthless demolition of Penang Indian traditional village, Kampung Buah Pala last year.
“Pakatan state governments in Penang, Kedah and Selangor must act fast to stop the rot,” they concluded.
A BN official said that following Hulu Selangor and Bagan Pinang victories, BN has now conceded that Indians, not ethnic Chinese, are its second largest vote bank after the ethnic Malays.
“That can be decisive in the next general election,” he told FMT recently.