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Malaysian Ivermectin Trial Shows a 70% of Reduction in Deaths
HISHAM TIPU APA HARI INI
KKM's ivermectin trial has concluded and FLCCC has analysed the result. (Thank you to Matthew Ooi who discovered the FLCCC analysis and sent it to me.)
This is what they found:
Ivermectin group: 3 deaths out of 241 patients (1.2%)
Standard treatment group: 10 deaths out of 249 patients (4%)
Risk reduction for deaths: 69%, p=0.09
The p value shows statistical significance. Statistical significance means the reduction in deaths is really due to the medicine and not just by chance. It needs to be at least 0.05% to be significant. This is very close already but a bit short due to the very small number of patients. It only needs a 0.04% more difference, or 13% more patients, to reach statistical significance. But because it is a bit short, KKM can say that the result is not statistically significant and thus the medicine is ineffective and cannot be approved.
The number of deaths in both groups are not stated in Hisham's press release (why hide this???) but FLCCC reverse-engineered it from the statistics numbers. Damn great minds. I really take my hat off to them.
Honestly, I’m amazed that ivermectin given to such “low hope” patients--late stage, aged 50-100 with one or more co-morbidities--can still save 70% of their lives. How many people more could have been saved? What about younger people? Those with no co-morbidities? Really heartache to think...
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Keputusan kajian ivermectin telah diumumkan, dan FLCCC telah menganalisa keputusan kajian ini (link di dalam komen, lihat barisan Nov 3). Terima kasih kepada Matthew Ooi yg menjumpai analisa ini dan menghantarnya kepada saya.
Ini adalah hasil analisa mereka:
Kumpulan ivermectin: 3 kematian daripada 241 pesakit (1.2%)
Kumpulan rawatan biasa: 10 kematian daripada 249 pesakit (4%)
Pengurangan risiko kematian: 69%, p=0.09
Angka p menunjukkan “statistical significance” (perbezaan yg ketara). Perbezaan ketara bermaksud penurunan angka kematian adalah betul2 disebabkan oleh ubat yg dikaji dan bukan secara kebetulan. Angka ini perlu mencapai minima 0.05 untuk dikira sebagai ketara. 0.09 sudah sangat dekat tapi kurang sikit disebabkan bilangan pesakit terlalu kecil. Hanya perlukan 0.04% saja, atau 13% pesakit lagi, untuk mencapai perbezaan ketara. Dengan sebab itu, KKM kata angka kematian tidak menunjukkan penurunan yg ketara, jadi ubat ini tidak berkesan dan tak boleh diluluskan.
Angka kematian di dalam kedua-dua kumpulan tidak dinyatakan di dalam kenyataan akhbar Hisham (kenapa sembunyi???) tapi FLCCC kira balik dari angka statistik KKM. Otak power betul ni.
Saya betul2 kagum sebab walaupun ivermectin diberi kepada pesakit yg dikira tipis harapan--tahap lewat, berumur 50-100 dengan satu atau lebih komorbiditi/penyakit kronik--masih boleh menyelamatkan 70% nyawa mereka. Berapa lagi yg boleh diselamatkan? Apa lagi yang muda? Apa lagi yang tak ada penyakit kronik? Sakit hati betul kalau dikira...
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Links are in the comments.